Polling

Polish and Tarnish: Why Markwayne Mullin is beating George Faught in OK2

I have a special fondness for Oklahoma’s Second Congressional District.  Not only did I grow up in the district, but most of my family still lives there.  It’s a mostly rural district with only a couple of urban areas of over 30,000 people, covering most of the eastern portion of the state, including my hometown of Tahlequah.  So it’s with a little bit of excitement that I get to write about the Republican runoff currently in progress there. (more…)

Veep: Mitt’s Number Two

We’ve heard so much gab in recent months about who Mitt Romney, the GOP’s all-but nominee for president, will or should choose as his running mate.  Every name you can think of has been mentioned: Chris Christie, New Jersey’s loud-mouth yet lovable governor; Marco Rubio, Florida’s junior (and did I mention Hispanic?) U.S. Senator; and Paul Ryan, the ever-controversial chairman of the House Budget Committee.  There has even been talk about names most have never heard: Bob McDonnell, the governor of Virginia, and Mitch Daniels, Indiana’s chief executive.

But now that the Veepstakes has entered its audition phase, the question everyone will be asking is: “Who will he choose?”  Will it be Rubio or Ryan?  Will it be Bachmann or Bobby (Jindal, that is)?  But the question that appeals to me isn’t so much “who,” but rather “how?”  And that’s what I’ll write about. (more…)

Out of the Closet: President Obama and Gay Marriage

President Barack Obama has a history of “evolving” on the issue of gay marriage.  In 2004, when running for the Illinois State Senate, he said “that marriage is between a man and a woman.”  Now, six years later, he has done a complete one-eighty.  On Wednesday, the president announced that he “affirm[s] that…same sex couples should be able to get married.”  While each of us has the right to change our mind on issues, Mr. Obama will face a substantial political backlash in light of this particular flip-flop.  (more…)

Faulty Polling by Washington Post & ABC

Several press account yesterday touted a new Washington Post-ABC News poll showing President Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-43 percent.  The media used this poll to make cases for everything from Mr. Obama being more likable than Romney to being more in-tune to the needs of the middle class.

Conversely, the poll showed that Romney’s message resonated more so than the president’s and that people believed the former is more able to handle the economy and energy prices.

While I know the media love polls, and they are of great value to campaign strategies, and indeed polling keeps folks like Scott Rasmussen and my good friend John Couvillion employed, I have to question the legitimacy of this particular poll.  I found something interestingly skewed in its methodology.

The poll, conducted April 5-8, had a margin of error of +/- 3.5% because of its sample size of 1,103 adults.  This is a very common national sample size and resulting margin of error.  However, this particular polled, in my opinion, did not gain an adequate sample of respondents from the two major political parties.  The Post & ABC polled a sample of 34% Democrats to only 23% Republicans, when the actual voter registration number are roughly 36-32%, Democratic.  This severe under-sampling of GOP voters drastically skews the numbers in favor of Mr. Obama. 

The value of a skewed poll is nil and shouldn’t be given any credence; however, the media will not look at that if it doesn’t suit their story line.  But now you, the well-informed, know the truth.