Last year, national Democrats exhibited a shocking inability to think past the end of their nose. In the December runoff in Louisiana, the Dems and their allies left former-Senator Mary Landrieu (man, that phrase sounds great!) to her own devices against then-Rep. Dr. Bill Cassidy. The Senate map in 2016 favors Democrats (and it’s a presidential year, which always favors the left) and retaining that one seat last year would have made their battle next year a bit easier. But they gave up, which was a strategic blunder, in my professional opinion.
Now, it seems, they have the opposite problem. Rather than retaining money on a seat they needed and may have been able to win, they are considering spending money on a seat they have zero chance at winning. Roll Call reported the DCCC is weighing its options in NY-11, the seat opened by the retirement of GOP Rep. Michael Grimm after his guilty plea to tax law violations. I won’t rehash the Roll Call article here, but suffice it to say, the district and political environment are not favorable for the party of Bill DeBlasio.
For a national party that raises money hand over fist, the Democrats have no apparent idea what they’re doing when it comes to spending that money. (But I think we all recognize them as the party who has no idea about fiscal sense.)
If I were consulting for the Democrats (aside from questioning my morals), I would advise the DCCC to stay out of NY-11. If this seat would swing the balance of power, I’d say go for it. But winning it would not give the Dems a majority, or anything close to one, in the House. Save your money for when it can actually make a difference.
But as a Republican, I’d love to watch them blow a load of cash into an election they can’t win. That’s a couple of million bucks they won’t have next year when it really matters.
But, who knows what they’ll do? Only time will tell. Here’s what I predict: If they stay out, it’s a boring and uneventful campaign between a well-known, if not controversial, Republican and an underfunded Democrat grasping at straws, trying to make hay; if they get involved, it’s a boring and uneventful campaign between a well-known, if not controversial, Republican and a well-funded Democrat grasping at straws, trying to make hay.