Well, it’s all but official now—it’s a two man race. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum made a post-Easter exit from the campaign trail Tuesday to focus on being a more present parent to his three-year-old daughter, Bella, who has since birth been afflicted with chronic illness. His departure has mostly cleared the path to eleven-forty-four for Mitt Romney. Sure, a few sporadic votes will still be cast for Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, but with them sitting at 136 and 51 delegates, respectively, there is no logical or mathematical way for either of the gentlemen to get to 1,144, aside from a brokered convention. I suppose it’s time for me to hop on the bandwagon and claim that Romney is now the eventual Republican nominee for President of the United States. But what does that mean for the Romney and Obama campaigns from here on out? (more…)
Several press account yesterday touted a new Washington Post-ABC News poll showing President Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-43 percent. The media used this poll to make cases for everything from Mr. Obama being more likable than Romney to being more in-tune to the needs of the middle class.
Conversely, the poll showed that Romney’s message resonated more so than the president’s and that people believed the former is more able to handle the economy and energy prices.
While I know the media love polls, and they are of great value to campaign strategies, and indeed polling keeps folks like Scott Rasmussen and my good friend John Couvillion employed, I have to question the legitimacy of this particular poll. I found something interestingly skewed in its methodology.
The poll, conducted April 5-8, had a margin of error of +/- 3.5% because of its sample size of 1,103 adults. This is a very common national sample size and resulting margin of error. However, this particular polled, in my opinion, did not gain an adequate sample of respondents from the two major political parties. The Post & ABC polled a sample of 34% Democrats to only 23% Republicans, when the actual voter registration number are roughly 36-32%, Democratic. This severe under-sampling of GOP voters drastically skews the numbers in favor of Mr. Obama.
The value of a skewed poll is nil and shouldn’t be given any credence; however, the media will not look at that if it doesn’t suit their story line. But now you, the well-informed, know the truth.
As Tim Fitzsimmons points out, calls for Rick Santorum to drop his presidential bid have increased of late, especially in light of Mitt Romney’s sweep of Tuesday night’s primaries, winning Wisconsin, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. Romney leads the delegate count but Santorum has a strong appeal to conservatives, a group with which Romney is struggling, preventing him from sealing the deal. So the question remains: Should Santorum stay in the race or concede defeat? (more…)
I live my life at the intersection of faith and politics; it’s where I’m comfortable. If this intersection were a literal one, I would build a nice house (with a white picket fence, of course) at the corner and be perfectly content. However, rather than being a geographic location, it’s a lifestyle. I choose to live out my faith as an outward expression of the redemption I’ve found in Christ; I choose to live as a political conservative because the principles of conservatism have a track record of success. (more…)